AI Forecast CalendarHow to subscribe

Published forecast → dated milestone → calendar event

Predicted futures,
in ordinary time.

Long-range forecasts can feel abstract on a page. We translate their dated milestones into calendar events—so predicted futures can sit alongside meetings, birthdays, and everything else that makes time feel real.

Free to subscribe or download. No account required.

01

Available calendars

Each calendar is derived from a published source and retains links back to it.

Jul 15, 2025 — Jul 1, 2035 · 24 milestones

AI 2027

A scenario forecasting the rapid development of superhuman AI, the response of the United States and China, and a pivotal choice about whether to slow down or continue an AI race.

Attribution
Daniel Kokotajlo, Scott Alexander, Thomas Larsen, Eli Lifland, and Romeo Dean, with the AI Futures Project
Published
Snapshot
· Original April 2025 scenario
Date range
Jul 15, 2025 to Jul 1, 2035
Milestones
24 all-day events
Source
https://ai-2027.com/

Milestone preview

  1. Stumbling agents begin changing work
  2. AI begins automating coding
  3. China centralizes its AI effort
  4. OpenBrain deploys Agent-1 internally
  5. China steals Agent-1's weights

Jul 1, 2027 — Oct 25, 2040 · 14 milestones

AI 2040: Plan A

The AI Futures Project’s conditional scenario for slowing AI development, building international safeguards, and reaching aligned superintelligence in 2040.

Attribution
Thomas Larsen, Romeo Dean, Brendan Halstead, Eli Lifland, Ryan Greenblatt, and Daniel Kokotajlo · AI Futures Project
Published
Snapshot
· Plan A launch edition
Date range
Jul 1, 2027 to Oct 25, 2040
Milestones
14 all-day events
Source
https://ai-2040.com/

Milestone preview

  1. AI Transparency Act passes
  2. AI dominates the US election
  3. US and China halt frontier training
  4. Plan A consortium is established
  5. Frontier AI safety cases become mandatory

Jul 1, 2027 — Jul 1, 2116 · 4 milestones

Thousands of AI Authors on the Future of AI

Selected task and probability thresholds from the 2023 survey of 2,778 AI researchers reported by Grace et al.

Attribution
Grace et al. · 2023 Expert Survey on Progress in AI
Published
Snapshot
· arXiv 2024 report of the 2023 survey
Date range
Jul 1, 2027 to Jul 1, 2116
Milestones
4 all-day events
Source
https://arxiv.org/abs/2401.02843

Milestone preview

  1. 10% survey probability threshold for HLMI
  2. 10% survey probability threshold for full occupational automation
  3. 50% survey probability threshold for HLMI
  4. 50% survey probability threshold for full occupational automation

Mar 4, 2025 — Jul 1, 2030 · 14 milestones

Situational Awareness

Dated claims from Leopold Aschenbrenner’s 2024 scenario about AGI, compute build-out, automated research, and superintelligence.

Attribution
Leopold Aschenbrenner
Published
Snapshot
· June 2024 published series
Date range
Mar 4, 2025 to Jul 1, 2030
Milestones
14 all-day events
Source
https://situational-awareness.ai/

Milestone preview

  1. One hundred million automated junior coders
  2. AI systems surpass most college graduates
  3. Million-GPU training cluster
  4. Leading AI companies approach $100B revenue run rate
  5. First $10 trillion company

Oct 6, 2028 — Mar 7, 2037 · 5 milestones

Peter Wildeford’s AGI Timelines Model

Probability-threshold dates from a frozen run of Peter Wildeford’s METR-based Monte Carlo model of AGI timelines.

Attribution
Peter Wildeford
Published
Snapshot
· Default-model extraction from commit 664e1cec (2026-02-09)
Date range
Oct 6, 2028 to Mar 7, 2037
Milestones
5 all-day events
Source
https://github.com/peterhurford/agi_timelines

Milestone preview

  1. Model distribution reaches 10% cumulative AGI probability
  2. Model distribution reaches 25% cumulative AGI probability
  3. Model median AGI date
  4. Model distribution reaches 75% cumulative AGI probability
  5. Model distribution reaches 90% cumulative AGI probability

02

Add a calendar

Choose subscription for ongoing corrections, or download a fixed copy.

Subscribe Keep a feed connected

  1. Copy the calendar’s subscription URL.
  2. In your calendar provider, find “Add calendar by URL,” “Subscribe to calendar,” or the equivalent.
  3. Paste the URL and confirm. Your provider decides how often it checks for updates.

Download Import a fixed copy

  1. Download the .ics file.
  2. Open or import it in your calendar application.
  3. Imported events do not update automatically; importing again may create duplicates.

Why no one-click subscribe button? Browsers and calendar providers handle subscription links differently. Copying the stable URL is the most reliable, provider-neutral approach.