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PRODID:-//AI Forecast Calendar//Forecast Milestones//EN
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X-WR-CALNAME:Situational Awareness
X-WR-CALDESC:Dated claims from Leopold Aschenbrenner’s 2024 scenario abou
 t AGI\, compute build-out\, automated research\, and superintelligence.
BEGIN:VEVENT
UID:situational-awareness.graduates@ai-forecast-calendar
DTSTAMP:20240604T000000Z
DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20251231
DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20260101
SUMMARY:Situational Awareness: AI systems surpass most college graduates
DESCRIPTION:Forecast: AI systems become smarter than most college graduates
 .\n\nSource timing: 2025–2026\n\nCalendar anchor: 2025-12-31 (The source
  gives a two-year window\; its midpoint is December 31\, 2025.)\n\nSource 
 context: Introduction and From GPT-4 to AGI\n\nForecast uncertainty: The s
 ource frames the broader AGI timeline as strikingly plausible rather than 
 certain.\n\nSource: https://situational-awareness.ai/
URL:https://situational-awareness.ai/
TRANSP:TRANSPARENT
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
UID:situational-awareness.hundred-million-coders@ai-forecast-calendar
DTSTAMP:20240604T000000Z
DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20250304
DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20250305
SUMMARY:Situational Awareness: One hundred million automated junior coders
DESCRIPTION:Forecast: Automated systems provide the equivalent of roughly o
 ne hundred million junior software engineers.\n\nSource timing: Next 1–2
  years (from June 2024)\n\nCalendar anchor: 2025-03-04 (The 12-to-24-month
  range from the June 4\, 2024 publication is anchored at its 18-month midp
 oint.)\n\nSource context: From AGI to Superintelligence\n\nForecast uncert
 ainty: This is a scale illustration within the intelligence-explosion argu
 ment.\n\nSource: https://situational-awareness.ai/
URL:https://situational-awareness.ai/
TRANSP:TRANSPARENT
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
UID:situational-awareness.million-gpu-cluster@ai-forecast-calendar
DTSTAMP:20240604T000000Z
DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20260701
DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20260702
SUMMARY:Situational Awareness: Million-GPU training cluster
DESCRIPTION:Forecast: The largest training cluster reaches roughly one mill
 ion H100-equivalent GPUs\, about $10 billion and 1 GW.\n\nSource timing: ~
 2026\n\nCalendar anchor: 2026-07-01 (The source names approximately 2026\;
  July 1 is the representative year midpoint.)\n\nSource context: Racing to
  the Trillion-Dollar Cluster\n\nForecast uncertainty: Hardware counts\, co
 st\, and power are order-of-magnitude projections.\n\nSource: https://situ
 ational-awareness.ai/
URL:https://situational-awareness.ai/
TRANSP:TRANSPARENT
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
UID:situational-awareness.ai-revenue@ai-forecast-calendar
DTSTAMP:20240604T000000Z
DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20260701
DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20260702
SUMMARY:Situational Awareness: Leading AI companies approach $100B revenue 
 run rate
DESCRIPTION:Forecast: Leading AI companies approach a combined annualized r
 evenue scale of roughly $100 billion.\n\nSource timing: ~mid-2026\n\nCalen
 dar anchor: 2026-07-01 (The source uses a mid-2026 illustrative doubling t
 rajectory\; July 1 anchors midyear.)\n\nSource context: Racing to the Tril
 lion-Dollar Cluster\n\nForecast uncertainty: The projection extrapolates a
  revenue-doubling trajectory and is not a company guarantee.\n\nSource: ht
 tps://situational-awareness.ai/
URL:https://situational-awareness.ai/
TRANSP:TRANSPARENT
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
UID:situational-awareness.agi@ai-forecast-calendar
DTSTAMP:20240604T000000Z
DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270701
DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270702
SUMMARY:Situational Awareness: AGI becomes strikingly plausible
DESCRIPTION:Forecast: Models capable of doing the work of AI researchers an
 d engineers make AGI plausible around 2027.\n\nSource timing: 2027\n\nCale
 ndar anchor: 2027-07-01 (The source names 2027\; July 1 is the representat
 ive year midpoint.)\n\nSource context: Introduction and From GPT-4 to AGI\
 n\nForecast uncertainty: The author calls the date a best guess/modal year
  and emphasizes uncertainty.\n\nSource: https://situational-awareness.ai/
URL:https://situational-awareness.ai/
TRANSP:TRANSPARENT
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
UID:situational-awareness.ten-trillion-company@ai-forecast-calendar
DTSTAMP:20240604T000000Z
DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270101
DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270102
SUMMARY:Situational Awareness: First $10 trillion company
DESCRIPTION:Forecast: AI-driven revenue growth supports the first company r
 eaching a $10 trillion valuation.\n\nSource timing: 2026–2027\n\nCalenda
 r anchor: 2027-01-01 (The source spans 2026–2027\; January 1\, 2027 is t
 he midpoint boundary.)\n\nSource context: Racing to the Trillion-Dollar Cl
 uster\n\nForecast uncertainty: A market-capitalization extrapolation\, not
  a certainty.\n\nSource: https://situational-awareness.ai/
URL:https://situational-awareness.ai/
TRANSP:TRANSPARENT
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
UID:situational-awareness.ai-investment-trillion@ai-forecast-calendar
DTSTAMP:20240604T000000Z
DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270701
DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20270702
SUMMARY:Situational Awareness: Annual AI investment exceeds $1 trillion
DESCRIPTION:Forecast: Total annual AI investment rises above $1 trillion\, 
 roughly three percent of US GDP.\n\nSource timing: 2027\n\nCalendar anchor
 : 2027-07-01 (The source names 2027\; July 1 is the representative year mi
 dpoint.)\n\nSource context: Racing to the Trillion-Dollar Cluster\n\nForec
 ast uncertainty: The estimate extrapolates investment growth and uses appr
 oximate magnitudes.\n\nSource: https://situational-awareness.ai/
URL:https://situational-awareness.ai/
TRANSP:TRANSPARENT
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
UID:situational-awareness.government-project@ai-forecast-calendar
DTSTAMP:20240604T000000Z
DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20280101
DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20280102
SUMMARY:Situational Awareness: Government AGI project begins
DESCRIPTION:Forecast: The US government creates a national AGI effort resem
 bling a modern Manhattan Project.\n\nSource timing: 2027–2028\n\nCalenda
 r anchor: 2028-01-01 (The 2027–2028 range is anchored at the January 1\,
  2028 midpoint boundary.)\n\nSource context: The Project\n\nForecast uncer
 tainty: The exact institutional form is explicitly uncertain.\n\nSource: h
 ttps://situational-awareness.ai/
URL:https://situational-awareness.ai/
TRANSP:TRANSPARENT
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
UID:situational-awareness.ten-million-gpu-cluster@ai-forecast-calendar
DTSTAMP:20240604T000000Z
DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20280701
DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20280702
SUMMARY:Situational Awareness: Ten-million-GPU training cluster
DESCRIPTION:Forecast: The largest training cluster reaches roughly ten mill
 ion H100-equivalent GPUs\, about $100 billion and 10 GW.\n\nSource timing:
  ~2028\n\nCalendar anchor: 2028-07-01 (The source names approximately 2028
 \; July 1 is the representative year midpoint.)\n\nSource context: Racing 
 to the Trillion-Dollar Cluster\n\nForecast uncertainty: Hardware counts\, 
 cost\, and power are order-of-magnitude projections.\n\nSource: https://si
 tuational-awareness.ai/
URL:https://situational-awareness.ai/
TRANSP:TRANSPARENT
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
UID:situational-awareness.automated-researcher@ai-forecast-calendar
DTSTAMP:20240604T000000Z
DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20280101
DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20280102
SUMMARY:Situational Awareness: Prototype automated AI researcher
DESCRIPTION:Forecast: A prototype automated researcher can increasingly aut
 omate AI research itself.\n\nSource timing: 2027–2028\n\nCalendar anchor
 : 2028-01-01 (The 2027–2028 range is anchored at the January 1\, 2028 mi
 dpoint boundary.)\n\nSource context: From AGI to Superintelligence\n\nFore
 cast uncertainty: The source presents multiple possible timelines for the 
 transition.\n\nSource: https://situational-awareness.ai/
URL:https://situational-awareness.ai/
TRANSP:TRANSPARENT
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
UID:situational-awareness.superintelligence@ai-forecast-calendar
DTSTAMP:20240604T000000Z
DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20290101
DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20290102
SUMMARY:Situational Awareness: Rapid intelligence explosion reaches superin
 telligence
DESCRIPTION:Forecast: Automated AI research drives a rapid transition from 
 AGI toward superintelligence.\n\nSource timing: 2028–2029\n\nCalendar an
 chor: 2029-01-01 (The 2028–2029 range is anchored at the January 1\, 202
 9 midpoint boundary.)\n\nSource context: From AGI to Superintelligence and
  The Project\n\nForecast uncertainty: Timing depends on AGI arriving and r
 ecursive research automation working.\n\nSource: https://situational-aware
 ness.ai/
URL:https://situational-awareness.ai/
TRANSP:TRANSPARENT
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
UID:situational-awareness.hundred-million-gpus@ai-forecast-calendar
DTSTAMP:20240604T000000Z
DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20291231
DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20300101
SUMMARY:Situational Awareness: Hundreds of millions of GPUs support AI
DESCRIPTION:Forecast: Hundreds of millions of GPUs support AI systems by th
 e end of the 2020s.\n\nSource timing: By end of decade\n\nCalendar anchor:
  2029-12-31 (“By the end of the decade” is anchored to December 31\, 2
 029.)\n\nSource context: Introduction and From AGI to Superintelligence\n\
 nForecast uncertainty: The quantity is an order-of-magnitude projection.\n
 \nSource: https://situational-awareness.ai/
URL:https://situational-awareness.ai/
TRANSP:TRANSPARENT
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
UID:situational-awareness.trillion-dollar-cluster@ai-forecast-calendar
DTSTAMP:20240604T000000Z
DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20300701
DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20300702
SUMMARY:Situational Awareness: Trillion-dollar\, 100-GW training cluster
DESCRIPTION:Forecast: A frontier training cluster reaches roughly one hundr
 ed million H100-equivalent GPUs\, more than $1 trillion and 100 GW.\n\nSou
 rce timing: ~2030\n\nCalendar anchor: 2030-07-01 (The source names approxi
 mately 2030\; July 1 is the representative year midpoint.)\n\nSource conte
 xt: Racing to the Trillion-Dollar Cluster\n\nForecast uncertainty: The pro
 jection may face power\, chip\, finance\, and permitting constraints.\n\nS
 ource: https://situational-awareness.ai/
URL:https://situational-awareness.ai/
TRANSP:TRANSPARENT
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
UID:situational-awareness.superintelligence-summoned@ai-forecast-calendar
DTSTAMP:20240604T000000Z
DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20300701
DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20300702
SUMMARY:Situational Awareness: Superintelligence reshapes the world
DESCRIPTION:Forecast: By 2030 the scenario has summoned superintelligence a
 nd entered a period of extraordinary upheaval.\n\nSource timing: 2030\n\nC
 alendar anchor: 2030-07-01 (The source names 2030\; July 1 is the represen
 tative year midpoint.)\n\nSource context: The Project and Parting Thoughts
 \n\nForecast uncertainty: This culmination is conditional on the preceding
  capability and governance sequence.\n\nSource: https://situational-awaren
 ess.ai/
URL:https://situational-awareness.ai/
TRANSP:TRANSPARENT
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